For All Nails #40: That All the World Should be Counted
By David Mix Barrington
- Press Release from MacMillan Publishing, New York
- 15 January 1973
We are pleased to announce a second printing of Robert Sobel's acclaimed dual history of the CNA and USM, For Want of a Nail . . . . This new printing corrects a number of errors in the political results and population figures in the original printing, introduced during the editing process and no fault of Professor Sobel FN1...
From the 1973 Herald Almanac:
|State||Seats||Carter Monaghan (PC)||Jason Winters (L)||James Volk (PJP)|
- Partial transcript of vitavision interview on Confederation Public Affairs Network (C-PAN), 15 January 1973. Moderator (and C-PAN President) Brian Agnello speaks with Paul Markey, a political consultant from Burlington, NY, NC.
A: So. To sum up the overall picture, then?
M: If the election were held today, and there was no change in relative turnout of different groups from 1968, the Governor-General would increase his majority by five to ten seats, with the PJP taking about twenty.
A: It's in the bag for him?
M: You can't say that, of course. Any sudden event that swings as much as four percent away from the PC wipes out the gain. A swing of eight or ten and Monaghan loses his majority.
A: And what happens then?
M: The bazaar opens, I would guess. The PJP would have the balance of power, in theory, but they're so far from the other two parties on military and foreign policy they could only bargain on domestic. They'd demand a wholesale sacking of the leadership of the CBI, for starters, and probably a criminal investigation of this overhearing business FN4. To forestall that, I'd expect the other two parties to consider a coalition. Either that, or a few Liberals would would vote to re-elect Monaghan in exchange for specific favors.
A: You're saying the Liberal total could be as low as forty seats. Wouldn't that be a disaster for Governor Skinner?
M: Not necessarily. After last time there was serious doubt as to whether the Liberals could remain the chief opposition party after the split. That's no longer in doubt. The PJP has recast itself as a major regional party -- they may well get shut out outside of Manitoba and the NC, but they're not the national opposition Mason and Volk envisioned. The next non-PC government of this country will be Liberal, or a Liberal-led coalition. The Liberals will gain seats in the SC, which is the state that is growing fastest in overall population, and they have a strong leader from there. If you look deeper than the total-seat numbers, as well, the Liberals will run second in most of the PC seats. Any swing away from the PC next time largely benefits them. I think Governor Skinner would be happier than you'd think with forty seats, much less fifty.
A: You were mentioning electoral alliances before...
M: Yes -- the Governor-General has been lucky that his opponents haven't been able to take full advantage of tactical alliances. In my own province of New York, for example, an agreement was worked out between the PJP and the Liberals so that in several ridings there's only one candidate. That's going to cost the PC four, maybe five seats. The same deal in Indiana could have cost them ten, which would make the majority really problematic.
A: Your firm, Markey Research. You use calculating machines.
M: Yes, we do. Combined with well-designed voter surveys and detailed knowledge of local trends, they're tremendously useful. There's simply a whole lot of arithmetic to be done, and the machines we've obtained from General Computing can do incredible amounts of arithmetic very quickly. And that can start to help you to look at the information in new ways --
A: Like what?
M: Well, take the effect of race on voting patterns. Frank Rusk, one of the smartest guys in the business, wrote that in 1968 race was gone as a factor in CNA politics, along with region. Well, how could a smart guy like that say something so stupid?
A: Is it so stupid? Monaghan's approval ratings are pretty much the same for whites and Negroes.
M: Yes, but when you look deeper, that similarity is really the net cancellation of a lot of differences. Look, Negroes in SV are still small farmers to a large extent -- natural Liberal voters. Both the Negro farmer in SV and the white farmer in NV tell you that they like Monaghan but wish he'd protect their markets. But the Negro, and not the white man, goes and votes for the PC candidate. Take New York and Brooklyn City, pretty much the same in income, employment, what have you. New York has a more Negro population, a Negro mayor, and votes PC. Brooklyn has fewer Negroes, a solid core of more radical voters, a woman mayor, and votes PJP. If you know how, with one of these calculating machines you can take bigger surveys, break the results into more categories, and potentially spot smaller trends. You'll be seeing a lot more of them around, and not just in politics.
A: Where, then?
M: Well, the problem that GC has as a business is that there's only so much arithmetic being done that they can replace. They've moved into those markets pretty well -- computing odds for racetracks, scientific and military engineering work, and accounting of all kinds. The next step is to make the case to people that they need to be doing calculating that they're not doing now. GC has a subsidiary now called Integrated Business Management. They come to a large firm and show them how they can put all their accounts on one machine -- personnel, marketing, sales, suppliers, and make connections between them. You can't just buy a GC-3 and start using it for something like that, unfortunately, because there aren't yet enough people with the right experience. But IBM is training more all the time, and there are now programs at Champlain University to prepare students for this kind of work. It's having a big impact on our economy in Northeast New York. You should get someone from GC on your program --
A: We may very well do that, but for tonight we're out of time. Paul Markey, of Markey Research, thanks for joining us. Tomorrow night, New Granada. Michael Murphy from the Liberal Party will join us to discuss the latest developments there, and no doubt will tell us why they're the government's fault. Good night.
Proceed to FAN #41: If You Lead, I Will Follow.
Proceed to 21 January 1973: A Paper Tiger Revealed.
Proceed to CNA politics: A Speech Never Given.
Proceed to Paul Markey: The Briar Patch.
Return to For All Nails.